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batubara @ manufaktur china … 230913

September 23, 2013

Coal Growth Beyond China
By Reuben Brewer | More Articles
September 20, 2013 |
China has accounted for nearly all of coal’s demand growth over the past decade. Although demand from that country should continue to expand as China industrializes, it isn’t the only nation to watch. You should also keep an eye on India, Japan, and Europe.

Asia is bigger than China
World Coal recently reported that Japan’s thermal coal use was the highest on record in August. The fact that the country’s nuclear fleet has effectively shut down has forced it to look to other cheap and reliable base fuels, like coal. Price was the main reason cited for the shift to coal over other options, like natural gas.

Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI ) recently noted that India is scheduled to build more coal power plants (108) than China (103) by 2017. Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are other, albeit smaller, nations in the region with construction plans. According to Arch, “Thailand’s energy agency expects power demand to double by 2030, and views coal as a lower cost and more secure option than [liquefied natural gas].”

And Europe is part of the equation, too. According to Arch, “We have seen coal demand [in Europe] go up over the last couple of years…” The big reason for that growth is the combination of high natural gas prices and declining regional coal production. Although there’s a coal supply glut there today, Arch expects that to correct over time. The end result should be yet another market into which coal can be exported.

Plenty of export options
Arch is one of the big players in the U.S. export space, increasing its exports from 2 million tons to 14 million tons in a five-year span. Although that’s only about 10% of the company’s projected 2013 coal production, it’s still a notable business and a growing opportunity.

With operations in three key U.S. coal regions and port agreements on the East Coast, West Coast, and Gulf Coast, Arch is well positioned. Of note, the company is the second-largest player in the ultra-cheap Powder River Basin (PRB).

Exporting from here and there
The largest player in the Southern PRB region is Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU ) . It also holds a leading share in the second-cheapest coal region, the Illinois Basin (ILB). That gives the company access to cheap coal that can be exported to power the world’s utilities. However, unlike Arch, Peabody’s coal operations span the globe, with a notable position in Australia.

That region, which makes up nearly half of the company’s business, gives it direct access to Asia and has recently benefited from a falling Australian dollar. Thus Peabody has long-term opportunities domestically and in its foreign operations, and is receiving a performance boost today from its foreign coal assets. The coal miner expects the rest of the year to be touch and go on the earnings front, but that just means that 2014 earnings comparisons should be much easier.

Port issues
Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE: CLD ) is another big player in the PRB region. The company has been profitable despite the pressures that coal is currently facing. That said, exports have been a key focus and are expected to make up about 5% of the company’s coal volume this year.

Asia is the main customer, but South Korea is the biggest destination for Cloud Peak’s coal. So the company isn’t as reliant on continued demand from China for its export growth. Like all of the exporters, however, access to ports is a big issue. Cloud Peak is waiting for new port capacity before it can ramp up exports more materially. That’s a positive for a company like CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX ) , which owns its own port on the East Coast.

Although CONSOL has shifted its focus to natural gas drilling, it is still a large coal miner. The company only uses around 60% of the Baltimore terminal’s capacity; the remaining 40% is used by competitors. That gives CONSOL an easy way to increase its own export volume if it wants. The company uses that port to reach Europe, South America, and Asia.

Although CONSOL lost money in the first half, it has handled the downturn better than many of its coal-focused peers. That has much to do with a large and growing natural gas business. Interestingly, this dual focus sets the company up to benefit no matter which fuel source is favored.

Speaking of ports, Westshore Terminals (NASDAQOTH: WTSHF ) is benefiting from export growth right now. The company’s Canadian-based port is expected to handle up to 30 million tonnes of coal this year, up from 26 million tonnes last year. Upgrades in 2012 added another 3 million tonnes of capacity, with projects in the works that could add a similar amount of capacity over the next five years. Westshore is in prime position to benefit right now from foreign coal demand.

More than China
There’s no question that China is a big player when it comes to coal demand, but it isn’t the only market to watch. Europe and other Asian nations are increasingly important customers. Arch, Peabody, CONSOL, and Cloud Peak all have notable opportunities. Westshore, a “pick and axe” story paid for throughput, is benefiting today for those interested in its solid 4% or so dividend yield.
Manufaktur Membaik, Saham Batu Bara Jadi Pilihan

Oleh: Ahmad Munjin
pasarmodal – Senin, 23 September 2013 | 12:17 WIB

INILAH.COM, Jakarta –Kekhawatiran tapering dan debt ceiling AS menjadi tekanan negatif bagi DJIA sehingga negatif juga sentimennya bagi IHSG. Harapan muncul dari data manufaktur. Saham batu bara bisa jadi pilihan. Seperti apa?

Pada sesi pertama perdagangan Senin (23/9/2013), Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG ) ditutup melemah 50,4 poin (1,1%) ke posisi 4.533,433. Intraday terendah 4.512,205 dan tertinggi 4.559,292.

Satrio Utomo, kepala riset PT Universal Broker Indonesia mengatakan, kekhawatiran pasar akan tapering dan Budget Ceiling, telah membawa indeks Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) terkoreksi 185,46 poin (1,12%) pada hari Jumat. “Koreksi tersebut adalah sebuah signal negatif,” kata dia di Jakarta, Senin (23/9/2013).

Sebab, kata dia, posisi penutupan di level 15.451,09 cukup jauh dari suport pertama di level 15.625. “Koreksi pada DJIA hari Jumat, telah mengakhiri tren naik yang tengah berlangsung pada indeks tersebut,” ujarnya.

Posisi penutupan dari IHSG pada hari Jumat, lanjut dia, sebenarnya masih berada di atas suport pertama 4.575. “Akan tetapi, dengan sebagian besar dari saham-saham big caps seperti PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA), dan PT Astra International (ASII) ditutup di bawah support level, sepertinya membuat sulit bagi IHSG, untuk melanjutkan tren naiknya,” papar dia.

IHSG hari ini diperkirakan bergerak variatif dengan kisaran utama yang cukup sempit 4.575-4.625. “Jika suport di 4.575 gagal bertahan, IHSG akan memulai tren turun dengan arah menuju kisaran suport di 4.400-4.500,” tuturnya.

Akan tetapi, kata dia, jika ternyata resistance di 4.625 yang ditembus, berarti IHSG masih belum akan keluar dari kisaran flat 4.575-4750. “Koreksi DJIA terjadi pada hari Jumat. Koreksi besar seperti itu, sentimennya bisa saja ternetralisir oleh berita-berita yang muncul selama akhir minggu,” papar dia.

Harapan untuk penyelamatan IHSG, terdapat dari data-data manufaktur China dan Eropa, yang akan dipublikasikan pada hari ini. Indeks HSBC Flash Manufacturing tercatat sebesar 51,2. Angka ini di atas ekspektasi konsensus yang memperkirakan angkanya hanya sebesar 50,9. “Jika pasar merespons angka ini, pemodal bisa memperhatikan pergerakan dari saham-saham batubara,” tuturnya.

Sementara itu, data manufaktur Eropa akan dipublikasikan siang ini sekitar jam 14.30 WIB. Data manufaktur ini, lanjut dia, pada bulan kemarin mampu mengakhiri tren turun yang tengah terjadi di Bursa Regional. “Jika data tersebut ternyata positif, bisa saja IHSG terselamatkan dari munculnya trend turun,” imbuhnya. [jin]

Harga Turun, Produksi Batu Bara Nasional Cuma 80%

Oleh: Dewa Putu Sumerta
ekonomi – Senin, 23 September 2013 | 16:46 WIB

INILAH.COM, Bali – Harga batu bara yang belum stabil di pasaran internasional yang kini bahkan mengalami penurunan membuat beberapa perusahaan tambang batubara di Indonesia mulai mengurangi produksinya.

Indonesia sebagai salah satu negara produsen batu bara kini masih terkena dampak turunnnya harga di pasaran internasional. Pada tahun 2011, sekitar 80 persen atau hingga 391 juta ton batu bara untuk memenuhi ekspor.

“Setahun atau dua tahun ini, harga batu bara mengalami fluktuasi, harga komoditas ini terus dipengaruhi supply dan demand pasar internasional,” ujar staf khusus Menteri ESDM, Thobrani Alwi di sela Annual Business meeting on Indonesian Coal Producer and Buyers di Kuta, Senin (23/9/2013).

Thobrani memaparkan jika harga batu bara pada bulan September ini mencapai US$76 per tonnnya. Padahal menurut dia, harga batu bara tertinggi tahun 2011 pernah mencapai di atas US$130 per tonnya.

“Kondisi biaya-biaya produksi terus meningkat sementara fluktuasi harga cenderung menurun membuat perusahaan batu bara mulai mengurangi produksinya agar bisa bertahan,” paparnya.
tren harga batubara 1yr 2012_2013sep

From → Seputar Indy

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